Trade lane updates

Area	Trade Lane	Trade Lane Outlook	Space availability	Ocean rate Q1 2024	Ocean rate Q2 2024
South America	South America to Europe	8 March 2024 - Space is available from South America West Coast, and Panama canal crossings have lately been manageable, at least for all containerships which have had their crossing slot booked duly in advance. In average waiting time off the coast of Balboa is 1-2 days. Reefer season is strong from both coasts, but especially from East Coast : ships are sailing full ex Brazil.	Space limited	Stable	Stable
South America to Europe - March 2024	South America • South America to Europe •
Oceania	Oceania to Europe	8 March 2024 - Rates increased fast due higher operational costs associated to longer routes, and also EU ETS (Emissions Trading System) implementation. Ex Australia the direct service has omitted Suez transit since January 1st, and attacks increased in intensity lately, leaving little hope for a return to normal routing in the near future. Ex New Zealand, same concerns for the relay services via Asia, however no change on the direct service, which transits Panama. In Q2, reefer season ex New Zealand is expected to be one of strongest ever : space for dry cargo will be limited! Positive is that the DP World and Maritime Union of Australia conflict was resolved. Delays in main ports reduced from the 10-12 days earlier in January.	Space limited	Up	Up
Oceania to Europe - March 2024	Oceania • Oceania to Europe •
Africa	South Africa to Europe	30 Jan 2024 - Trade is stable, and specifically on the wine market the relatively low wine demand in Europe is putting market in stand-by, despite very competitive wine pricings. However costs are affected by bunker rise and EU ETS implementation, ranging between EUR 26 and EUR 36 per TEU for dry containers in Q1 2024. Affects of the Red Sea situation and vessels being re-routed around Cape of Good Hope are not known yet for this trade, but it will definitely hit equipment flows if the situation lasts for several weeks or months.	Space limited	Stable	Stable
South Africa to Europe - January 2024	Africa • South Africa to Europe •
South America	South America to Asia	30 Jan 2024 - Carriers are generally able to confirm space and equipment for bottled wine ; Flexitank suitable container availability remains an issue in Chile. In Q4 spot rates to main ports returned to pre-pandemic levels, but with the cherry export season, space got more challenging, opening avenues for rates increases again for the weeks ahead, especially demand for Chilean wine increased lately, driven also by lowered wine prices.	Space limited	Up	Stable
South America to Asia - January 2024	South America • South America to Asia •
Oceania	Oceania to Asia	30 Jan 2024 - Trade is improving same time as the relationship between Australia and China, following three years of dispute. Demand gets stimulated for wine as well, however tempered by a 2023 harvest in clear decrease. For New Zealand volumes are available and prices decreasing. Space on board is still accessible, even though trade capacity has been strongly reduced compared with last year. Lately TS Lines had to withdraw from NZ market, few weeks after ZIM rationalized their services and joined forces with MSC on that trade.	Space limited	Stable	Stable
Oceania to Asia - January 2024	Oceania • Oceania to Asia •
Oceania	Oceania to North America	30 Jan 2024 - Services to West Coast are often reported full, though this is mainly to do with other commodities, as wine remains down across the board. Value of Australian exports to US decreased some 18% in 2023. Services to East Coast are affected by delays and surcharges due to the Panama canal. In New Zealand container availability continues to be an unresolved issue, and impacting all carriers. In Australia, equipment stress increased due to continued lower imports and the industrial disruptions with DP World (40% of Australian throughput), impacting particularly 20fts. Equipment availability issues are likely to exacerbate with latest events disturbing ocean logistics flows and schedules.	Space limited	Up	Stable
Oceania to North America - January 2024	Oceania • Oceania to North America •
Asia	Asia to North America	30 Jan 2024 - The Red Sea situation is also affecting cargo en-route to US East Coast, though not as much as into Europe : from Shanghai to Savannah the transit time via Cape of Good Hope would only be some 5 days longer, with 15% additional distance. Alternative routings via Panama are studied, though the Canal also faces operational constraints due to low water. Rates are on the rise, especially to US East Coast, now exceeding $6000 a 40ft and $5000 to California, on the back of the Chinese export rush before Chinese New Year.	Space limited	Up	Stable
Asia to North America - January 2024	Asia • Asia to North America •
Asia	Asia to Europe	30 Jan 2024 - Following Houthi rebels attacks against commercial shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, all carriers have suspended most of their services via the Red Sea, re-routing vessels via the Cape of Good Hope. Besides transit times are increased in average by 10 days to North Europe (distance increasing by ~ a third), equipment supply is fast getting a concern as more containers become assets with more vessels deployed and longer transits. As demand remained firm on that trade (volumes +5,7% Jan-Sep 2023 compared with 2022), rates are going up quickly, with the spot rate at $5000 / 40ft, three tiems higher than last month.	Space available	Up	Down
Asia to Europe - January 2024	Asia • Asia to Europe •
North America	North America to Europe	30 Jan 2024 - Downward trend on Transatlantic Westbound affects the return leg from US, with less capacity and less options now being offered. EU ETS are affecting rate levels as of January, by EUR 15 to EUR 50 per TEU, depending the port-pairs and equipment.Due to Panama low water challenge there are issues with connections from USWC. THE Alliance AL5 schedule is affected, with delays at Rodman and Caucedo. If things get worse, there might be transshipments where carriers have to load on even smaller vessels.	Space limited	Stable	Stable
North America to Europe - January 2024	North America • North America to Europe •
North America	North America to Oceania	30 Jan 2024 - Trade has been quite depressed over the main part of the year, with volumes down 19% in January-September 2023 compared with the year before. Now services are getting better utilization, and space gets tighter. From US East Coast, both services, the ANP (Hapag Lloyd, Maersk and MSC) and the PAD (CMA CGM, Marfret) have to go through Panama Canal, for now there was no capacity change and services could stay per their usual routes. We even get a slight relief as Panama Canal Authority announced they could extend daily crossings in January to 24 vessels instead of 20 expected. Still we remain far from normal (which is around 36 daily slots).	Space limited	Up	Stable
North America to Oceania - January 2024	North America • North America to Oceania •
Europe	Europe to Middle East	30 Jan 2024 - One of the markets most affected by the current situation around the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Whilst situation remains extremely fluid and rates volatile, this trade won’t escape serious rates increases, unless a remedy is provided to attacks on commercial vessels. Magnitude of costs increases advised can already reach some USD 1500 /40ft to Middle East, and the double to Red Sea ports such as Jeddah or King Abdullah, which can’t be served now without crossing the Suez Canal. Even more concerning, some carriers report current operational inability to serve Jeddah, and other solutions have to be found to re-route this cargo.	Space limited	Up	Stable
Europe to Middle East - January 2024	Europe • Europe to Middle East •
Europe	Europe to Asia	30 Jan 2024 - Rates are going up rapidly as carriers invoked force majeure and are adjusting their assets to re-route this trade via the Cape of Good Hope, with surcharges that can reach above the USD 1000 /40ft mark, be it for Emergency Operational Surcharge, War Risk, Transit Disruption Surcharge, or pure Rate Restoration programs... Schedules are changing daily, as carriers drop off ports to maintain schedules, and as some vessels do attempt to revive the via Suez passage under military protection. Demand remains weak, 6% down in Jan-Sept 2023 vs 2022, but challenges will also come from equipment supply problematics, schedule disruption and blank sailings ahead.	Space available	Up	Stable
Europe to Asia - January 2024	Europe • Europe to Asia •
Europe	Europe to Oceania	30 Jan 2024 - Volumes in Jan-Sep 2023 were down 16% year on year : retail sales slowed down, as consumers facing inflation watch their expenditures. For beverages, wines and spirits specifically stocks are high, and wine sales contracted, like on every wine mature market in the world. Space is available both on direct and relay services, though the ‘danger’ is now shifting from blank sailing programs from Asia to a global disruption due the re-routing of all services usually going through Suez canal. Further disruption is likely to happen in the hubs of Singapore and Port Klang.	Space limited	Up	Stable
Europe to Oceania - January 2024	Europe • Europe to Oceania •
Europe	Europe to North America	30 Jan 2024 - Demand remains weak on the TA, and carriers have operated some (modest) capacity reduction in the last weeks, especially 2M deploying smaller vessels on TA2 and Ocean Alliance doing the same on their Liberty loop. Also Ellerman signed a deal to jump on MSC’s ScanBaltic service. With the introduction of EU Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) and the costs increase to cross the Panama Canal, coupled with the capacity and equipment disruption due to the Red Sea situation, ocean rates are going up from both the West Med and North Europe, to a slightly lesser extent.	Space limited	Up	Up
Europe to North America - January 2024	Europe • Europe to North America •
South America	South America to North America	30 Jan 2024 - Market has remained stable, and benchmarks as assessed by Drewry from San Antonio or Santos to US ports are virtually flat since September. However services through Panama Canal have to consider surcharges. Interest of US market for Chile and Argentine wines has been mediocre lately, and Argentinean wines faced economic problematics as the average wine prices moved down… Now, as stock levels are now lower on the US shelves, demand may bounce back in months ahead.	Space limited	Up	Stable
South America to North America - January 2024	South America • South America to North America •
North America	North America to Asia	30 Jan 2024 - Chinese New Year in 2024 is coming a few weeks later than last year. This gives carriers an extra two weeks to adjust their sailing schedules. Carriers expect lower volumes ex Asia and will move forward with blank sailings. The consequence will be immediately on the US exports to Asia. Therefore we anticipate intensive blank sailings as of February 1st. Important to have containers booked and on board by the end of January so to have greater chances to make use of more number of services.	Space limited	Stable	Stable
North America to Asia - January 2024	North America • North America to Asia •