Area | Trade Lane | Trade Lane Outlook | Ocean rates Q3 2024 | Ocean rates Q4 2024 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Europe | Europe to Asia | 20 August - Current carriers focus is to reposition empty containers in Asia at the earliest. Congestion in Asia has mainly improved, though difficulties can remain, notably in Singapore. Supply remains stable : capacity injection, albeit important, is absorbed by longer routings via Cape of Good Hope and 5% of sailings will be blanked in September. That would be sufficient till Golden Week, thereafter demand should increase. | Down | Stable |
Europe to Asia | Europe • Europe to Asia • | |||
Europe | Europe to North America | 27 August - Summertime have shown strong demand trend, paired with summer capacity reductions and vessel blanking explaining Peak Season Surcharges announcements from carriers. In total, capacity on the trade is now down 12% year-on-year. We now see a scenario of fully utilized vessels on the trade. Risk of strikes in both US East Coast and Canada railways, as much as presidential election, have a continued effect on the demand outlook. Expectations are that October will set sail for further GRIs due high loading factors |
Up | Up |
North Europe to North America | Europe • Europe to North America • | |||
South America | South America to North America | 27 August - Several carriers are downsizing vessels calling Chile, and are re-shuffling capacity onto more profitable trades. That means more utilized vessels on the trade and GRIs are popping up. There are tensions with 20'ft suitable flexitank availability. | Stable | Up |
South America to North America | South America • South America to North America • | |||
South America | South America to Europe | 27 August - Weather conditions on the Chilean coast have been affected the services calling San Antonio, generating several cut and run. An important backlog remains to be evacuated. Vessels are sailing full, and surcharges on the heavy loads are being implemented. There are tensions with 20'ft suitable flexitank availability. |
Stable | Up |
South America to Europe | South America • South America to Europe • | |||
North America | North America to Asia | 27 August - While situation in South East Asia hubs and Far East main ports improved, main areas of concern remain Middle East and India. Direct services remain oversubscribed and more GRIs are being pushed on the trade, as alternate relay options are scarce with Red Sea avoidance. Availability of reefers ex US West Coast is getting better. Free times at destination are under pressure so to improve turnaround speed. Pacific North West region remains difficult with cargo backlog in Vancouver / Tacoma, and still a threat on Canadian railways operations, though bigger disruption was avoided to date. |
Up | Stable |
North America to Asia | North America • North America to Asia • | |||
Asia | Asia to Europe | 29 August - Freight rates have been on a downward trend since late July, driven by weakening demand as consumer spending in the EU declines. Carriers are striving to maintain rates at the USD 7,000 per 40-foot container level. However, a slight stabilization in rates is anticipated in September, as a surge in export volumes from China ahead of the October Golden Week holidays is expected to provide temporary support. | Up | Stable |
Asia to Europe | Asia • Asia to Europe • | |||
Europe | Europe to Oceania | 29 August - Space has been restricted on relay services through booking stops from CMA and full suspension of relay by MSC. The former is to clear large backlogs in Port Kelang and Singapore, the latter is because of a change in Oceania - Asia services, with capacity being withdrawn. Direct service as a consequence now is under space pressure, and also pressure on rates to increase | Up | Up |
Europe to Oceania | Europe • Europe to Oceania • | |||
Oceania | Oceania to Europe | 29 August - From Australia schedule reliability remains an issue with vessel bunching around the Australian coast resulting in 3 omissions of Adelaide by the direct service over a 6 week window. From NZ the direct service also continues to suffer from erratic connections at Tauranga from feeder cargo from Nelson and Napier. This also coupled with the late season reefer peak has resulted in continued dry space restrictions and roll pools. MSC have announced a change to their feedering arrangements for Europe, which should improve their reliability. |
Up | Up |
Oceania to Europe | Oceania • Oceania to Europe • | |||
Europe | Europe to Middle East | 20 August - Space is under tension : high vessel utilization, ships are fully booked 3 weeks in advance. Situation is not expected to improve, on the contrary sizeable peak season surcharges are being implemented on the trade. Only improvement, congestion at Jebel Ali is starting to slowly recede, facilitating empty equipment release to Arab Gulf destinations. | Up | Up |
Europe to Middle East | Europe • Europe to Middle East • | |||
Africa | South Africa to North America | 30 August - Weather and port conditions hampering movement and turn-around of equipment, causing equipment challenges as well as some bunching of vessels. Some delays due to this are to be expected however no omissions or blank sailings. Space availability is stable on main AMEX service. Due to high demand and congestion in Singapore, longer transit options via Far East under pressure. | Stable | Stable |
South Africa to North America | Africa • South Africa to North America • | |||
Oceania | Oceania to Oceania | 29 August - Some changes to available connections Eastbound due to the MSC Asia rationalisation. Adelaide to Auckland, for example, becomes fortnightly rather than weekly. Other than this restriction space generally is available and services are stable. | Stable | Stable |
Oceania to Oceania | Oceania • Oceania to Oceania • | |||
Oceania | Oceania to Asia | 29 August - MSC have announced a downgrading of their current 3 Asia services to 2. This will result in lesser services to SE Asia, and a change in how NZ cargo is feedered to various deep sea services to Europe and North America. It is expected that there will be 30% less capacity now, which could put pressure on rates for Q4. | Stable | Stable |
Oceania to Asia | Oceania • Oceania to Asia • | |||
Oceania | Oceania to North America | 29 August - Space is constricted on USEC services due to heavy demand. West coast services are not so much under the same pressure. This could change if any protracted strike action occurs in October on the East Coast, as cargo will be diverted. The west coast service is also short 1 vessel on the full rotation of 11, which is resulting in a blank sailing every 11 weeks. | Stable | Stable |
Oceania to North America | Oceania • Oceania to North America • | |||
Asia | Asia to North America | 29 August - Freight rates have been declining since late July, influenced by softening demand and the introduction of additional capacity by carriers. However, rates have rebounded since mid-August due to several factors, including the Canadian rail strike, ongoing ILA/USMX harbor labor contract negotiations, and the approaching U.S. presidential election. Looking ahead, September rates are expected to rise further, bolstered by a surge in export volumes from China ahead of the October Golden Week holidays. | Up | Up |
Asia to North America | Asia • Asia to North America • | |||
North America | North America to Europe | 27 August - Trade situation is more in carriers' favour than last year, as demand grew (+3% 2024 1st semester) while capacity decreased (-5% in June 2024 vs June 2023). Again over the summer several blank sailings were instated, such as on Ocean Alliance TAE (or Liberty) service, so to send more vessels in Asia. Full scale disruption with Canada railways didn't occur as the government ordered return to work and resumption of negotiation process, within a day. Social negotiations will be the key factor on logistics landscape there during the next few weeks, also with US East Coast longshoremen master contract ending September 30th. Meanwhile, rates are slightly up. | Stable | Stable |
North America to Europe | North America • North America to Europe • | |||
Africa | South Africa to Europe | 20 August - Citrus export season is a bit lower than expected. Provides some relief on space available, yet operations remain difficult due several ports omissions (CapeTown & Durban) following storm in the South Africa. Rain and heavy wind (35 knots) caused severe flooding incidents and road closures in Western Cape Area. At sea, several containerships lost boxes, and a smaller general cargo vessel grounded on South African coast, some 200 miles north of Cape Town. |
Stable | Stable |
South Africa to Europe | Africa • South Africa to Europe • | |||
South America | South America to Asia | 27 August - Booming rates ex Asia to South America have made that Eastbound leg very profitable for carriers. On the return, dry cargo is less sought-after and focus is on sending boxes back to Asia. There are tensions with 20'ft suitable flexitank availability. | Stable | Stable |
South America to Asia | South America • South America to Asia • |